Understanding Cyber Conflict

Key themes

Deterrence in Cyberspace

This theme explores the applicability and limitations of traditional deterrence theory (by denial, by punishment) in the cyber domain. It scrutinizes why cyber deterrence is uniquely challenging due to factors like attribution difficulties, the diverse range of actors, and the often-ambiguous nature of cyber attacks. The book analyzes how states attempt to signal capabilities and resolve, and the effectiveness of various retaliatory options.

Attribution and Escalation

The book meticulously dissects the problem of attributing cyber attacks—identifying the perpetrator with sufficient confidence to justify a response. It explains how attribution difficulties complicate retaliation, risk miscalculation, and can lead to inadvertent escalation. It also explores the 'escalation ladder' in cyberspace, considering how cyber incidents might move from low-level harassment to significant disruption or even kinetic conflict.

International Norms and Laws

This theme examines the nascent and often contested landscape of international law and norms of behavior in cyberspace. The authors discuss the applicability of existing international law (like the UN Charter's prohibition on the use of force, or humanitarian law) to cyber conflict, as well as efforts to develop new, specific norms for the digital realm. It highlights the challenges of achieving consensus among diverse state actors.

Worth discussing

How do the unique characteristics of cyberspace (e.g., attribution difficulty, speed) fundamentally alter traditional concepts of deterrence and conflict?